Difference between revisions of "Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making"

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[[Category : literature]]
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'''Author:''' Vecchiato, R.
  
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=== Article ===
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'''Title:''' Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: an integrated study
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'''Author:''' Riccardo Vecchiato  <br />
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'''Title:''' Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study <br />
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'''Year of Publication:''' 2012
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'''Source:''' Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 79, Issue 3, March 2012, Pages 436–447 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162511001466 <br />
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'''Publication:''' 2012 <br />
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'''Journal:''' Technological Forecasting and Social Change
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'''Abstract:''' This article investigates ‘forecast systems’ in big companies. Forecast systems are used in unstable environments to forecast upcoming events. Forecasting systems are used to predict/monitor occurring events in an uncertain business environment. Firstly, the author provides an understanding of uncertainty, dynamism and complexity in business environments. Secondly this research investigates a number of large companies are investigated on their foresight efforts and activities since 2000. These activities are compared to the principles of the different management schools. These management schools are the planning school, the adaptive school, the visionary school and the transformative approach.  All business schools have different opinions on strategic decision making and planning within an uncertain environment. With increasing complexity and dynamism in business environments on macro and micro level, forecasting future events becomes more difficult. This research intends to develop a framework to cope with business environment uncertainty by using strategic foresight activities in combination with different management approaches. <br />
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'''Volume:''' 79 '''Issue:''' 3
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'''Source:''' http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.010
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'''Keywords:''' [[:Category:Business|business]], [[:Category:Case study|case study]], [[:Category:Change|change]], [[:Category:Equilibrium|equilibrium]], [[:Category:Gestalt Switch|gestalt switch]], [[:Category:Management|management]], [[:Category:Organization|organization]], [[:Category:Qualitative|qualitative]]
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'''Abstract:''' This paper explores how the foresight practices and techniques that might be used for coping with environmental uncertainty are coordinated throughout large corporations and how their results are used for supporting strategic decision making. Based on an in-depth and multiple study of several companies, we analyse the main characteristics of environmental uncertainty - complexity and dynamism - that shape companies’ approaches to strategic foresight and uncertainty management. We explore the impact of growing complexity and dynamism on these approaches and the role of prediction and control in their design and implementation. We outline a conceptual framework for strategic foresight activities - and their relationships with decision making under uncertainty - as a planned learning process about the future which enables managers not to know opportunities and threats in advance, but to detect them more promptly and to react more effectively as soon as they start emerging.
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[[Category:Literature]]
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[[Category:Business]]
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[[Category:Case study]]
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[[Category:Change]]
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[[Category:Equilibrium]]
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[[Category:Gestalt Switch]]
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[[Category:Management]]
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[[Category:Organization]]
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[[Category:Qualitative]]
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=== Thoughts ===
 
=== Thoughts ===
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''"We argue that whatever the kinds of uncertainty, the main contribution that foresight efforts bring to strategy formulation lies not in predicting the future (i.e., in the
 
''"We argue that whatever the kinds of uncertainty, the main contribution that foresight efforts bring to strategy formulation lies not in predicting the future (i.e., in the
 
predictions themselves that represent the outputs of foresight), but in preparing the managers of the organization to handle the future (i.e. in the learning process about the future enabled by these predictions)."''
 
predictions themselves that represent the outputs of foresight), but in preparing the managers of the organization to handle the future (i.e. in the learning process about the future enabled by these predictions)."''
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Revision as of 06:40, 11 May 2013

Author: Vecchiato, R.

Title: Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: an integrated study

Year of Publication: 2012

Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volume: 79 Issue: 3

Source: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.010

Keywords: business, case study, change, equilibrium, gestalt switch, management, organization, qualitative

Abstract: This paper explores how the foresight practices and techniques that might be used for coping with environmental uncertainty are coordinated throughout large corporations and how their results are used for supporting strategic decision making. Based on an in-depth and multiple study of several companies, we analyse the main characteristics of environmental uncertainty - complexity and dynamism - that shape companies’ approaches to strategic foresight and uncertainty management. We explore the impact of growing complexity and dynamism on these approaches and the role of prediction and control in their design and implementation. We outline a conceptual framework for strategic foresight activities - and their relationships with decision making under uncertainty - as a planned learning process about the future which enables managers not to know opportunities and threats in advance, but to detect them more promptly and to react more effectively as soon as they start emerging.

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