Difference between revisions of "Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making"
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− | + | '''Author:''' Vecchiato, R. | |
− | + | '''Title:''' Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: an integrated study | |
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− | '''Title:''' Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: | + | '''Year of Publication:''' 2012 |
− | ''' | + | |
− | ''' | + | '''Journal:''' Technological Forecasting and Social Change |
− | '''Abstract:''' This | + | |
+ | '''Volume:''' 79 '''Issue:''' 3 | ||
+ | |||
+ | '''Source:''' http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.010 | ||
+ | |||
+ | '''Keywords:''' [[:Category:Business|business]], [[:Category:Case study|case study]], [[:Category:Change|change]], [[:Category:Equilibrium|equilibrium]], [[:Category:Gestalt Switch|gestalt switch]], [[:Category:Management|management]], [[:Category:Organization|organization]], [[:Category:Qualitative|qualitative]] | ||
+ | |||
+ | '''Abstract:''' This paper explores how the foresight practices and techniques that might be used for coping with environmental uncertainty are coordinated throughout large corporations and how their results are used for supporting strategic decision making. Based on an in-depth and multiple study of several companies, we analyse the main characteristics of environmental uncertainty - complexity and dynamism - that shape companies’ approaches to strategic foresight and uncertainty management. We explore the impact of growing complexity and dynamism on these approaches and the role of prediction and control in their design and implementation. We outline a conceptual framework for strategic foresight activities - and their relationships with decision making under uncertainty - as a planned learning process about the future which enables managers not to know opportunities and threats in advance, but to detect them more promptly and to react more effectively as soon as they start emerging. | ||
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+ | [[Category:Literature]] | ||
+ | [[Category:Business]] | ||
+ | [[Category:Case study]] | ||
+ | [[Category:Change]] | ||
+ | [[Category:Equilibrium]] | ||
+ | [[Category:Gestalt Switch]] | ||
+ | [[Category:Management]] | ||
+ | [[Category:Organization]] | ||
+ | [[Category:Qualitative]] | ||
+ | |||
+ | <!--STUDENT CONTENT | ||
=== Thoughts === | === Thoughts === | ||
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''"We argue that whatever the kinds of uncertainty, the main contribution that foresight efforts bring to strategy formulation lies not in predicting the future (i.e., in the | ''"We argue that whatever the kinds of uncertainty, the main contribution that foresight efforts bring to strategy formulation lies not in predicting the future (i.e., in the | ||
predictions themselves that represent the outputs of foresight), but in preparing the managers of the organization to handle the future (i.e. in the learning process about the future enabled by these predictions)."'' | predictions themselves that represent the outputs of foresight), but in preparing the managers of the organization to handle the future (i.e. in the learning process about the future enabled by these predictions)."'' | ||
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Revision as of 05:40, 11 May 2013
Author: Vecchiato, R.
Title: Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: an integrated study
Year of Publication: 2012
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume: 79 Issue: 3
Source: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.010
Keywords: business, case study, change, equilibrium, gestalt switch, management, organization, qualitative
Abstract: This paper explores how the foresight practices and techniques that might be used for coping with environmental uncertainty are coordinated throughout large corporations and how their results are used for supporting strategic decision making. Based on an in-depth and multiple study of several companies, we analyse the main characteristics of environmental uncertainty - complexity and dynamism - that shape companies’ approaches to strategic foresight and uncertainty management. We explore the impact of growing complexity and dynamism on these approaches and the role of prediction and control in their design and implementation. We outline a conceptual framework for strategic foresight activities - and their relationships with decision making under uncertainty - as a planned learning process about the future which enables managers not to know opportunities and threats in advance, but to detect them more promptly and to react more effectively as soon as they start emerging.
Contributors
Bob, Bozana, Koen, Peter Bouwdewijn, Reinier van der Plank, Tobias Lensker