Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier Than You Think

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Authors: B. Flyvbjerg, A. Budzier

Publication Year: 2011

Source: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2069994

Journal: Harvard Business Review

Volume: 89

Issue: 9

Categories: Innovation, Crisis


Abstract

Flyvberg and Budzier introduce the phenomenon of the occurrence of so-called black swans in IT projects and give examples of such events in recent practice. In order to objectify their thesis, Flyvberg and Budzier examined 1,471 IT projects with respect to their performance and cost profile. Based on the results they claim that black swans are the true reason for IT projects to fail and explain which developments boosted the emergence of black swans. The article concludes with some hints on how to avoid black swans.